PROBABLY WILL WIN
AVATAR (James Cameron and Jon Landau) - This film was just a juggernaut, it was more pandemic than H1N1. Everyone saw it, and everyone was blown away, if not by the actual movie than by the visual accomplishment. Plus it made more than the Gross National Product of most developed nations. And at the end of the day these are movies. Movies made by corporations. Corporations that aren't making art, they are making money. So, like "Titanic" before it, "Avatar" can enjoy the rewards that all the money in the world can buy.
SHOULD WIN
A SERIOUS MAN (Joel and Ethan Coen) - Commerce aside, this really was the best picture of the 2009. It could have been the best picture of the decade, but it will never be showered with the accolades that an "Avatar" will because it is too impenetrable, too cerebral, too perfect. At least that's what the Coen Brothers's agent keeps telling them. I have a feeling that this movie wouldn't have even been nominated if the category hadn't been expanded to ten. It would have been "Avatar," "Blind Side," "The Hurt Locker," "Precious," and "Up in the Air," and this amazing little movie would have been left out in the cold like the Rabbi at the beginning of the movie.
Twenty four days, twenty four categories. This is the end of the Oscar race. I've pulled out all my Tarot Cards, shaken every Magic Eight Ball I own, pondered every bowl of chicken innards in the house, and this marks the end of El Luchador's Oscar picks. The small print on all of this is that if you use my picks on your Oscar pool on Sunday I get 10% of all your winnings. That's just the bidniss.
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